USCIS has replaced equal-chance cap-subject H-1B selection with wage-level weighting: Levels I, II, III and IV receive 1, 2, 3 and 4 entries, respectively. These weights do not translate into fixed individual selection probabilities.
Who is affected
cap-subject H-1B registrants and employers reporting the offered position.
Key boundaries
One to four weights are not individual selection probabilities and do not themselves raise the required wage floor.
Next to watch
Future cap seasons · USCIS will continue weighting selection by the OEWS level for the occupation, work location, and offered wage unless the rule is later changed.
Policy background
00 / BACKGROUND
DHS published the RIN 1615-AD01 final rule on December 29, 2025; it took effect on February 27, 2026 and applies beginning with the FY 2027 registration season. USCIS assigns one to four entries according to the position’s OEWS wage level. The rule retains beneficiary-centric selection and the existing order for regular and U.S. advanced-degree allocations.
Potential impact
01 / IMPACT
OUR TAKE · ANALYSIS
The wage level assigned to a role is now part of its selection chances.
Wage weighting ties job conditions more closely to selection chances. For graduates in entry-level roles, employment choices and immigration strategy now need to be assessed together. Weight is a mechanism, however, and does not directly state an individual probability of selection.
For graduates: the structure of the first job matters more
An entry-level role assigned Level I receives less weight. Roles requiring more experience or assigned higher levels have a relative advantage, but annual salary alone does not determine the level.
For example · Hypothetical
Lin and Chen enter H-1B selection with jobs at wage Levels I and IV respectively. The new system assigns one selection weight to Lin and four to Chen instead of equal weights. Chen’s higher level gives more weight but does not guarantee selection or directly establish either person’s individual probability.
When comparing offers: occupation and location matter
Wage level depends on the specific occupation and work location. Comparing salary numbers across regions and roles can produce the wrong conclusion about selection advantage.
Example 1 · Hypothetical
Li receives two $100,000 offers for different jobs or locations. Wage levels depend on the relevant occupation and geographic wage data, so the offers may fall into different levels. Because selection weights follow those levels rather than salary figures alone, equal salaries do not necessarily mean equal weights.
Example 2 · Hypothetical
Chen hopes a raise will improve the H-1B selection chance. Under the new system, the question is whether the increased salary qualifies for a higher wage level. If it remains in the same level, the raise does not increase the selection weight.
For employers: wages, duties, and filings must support one another
Employers may pay more attention to consistency between the role and wage data. Changing labels merely to increase weight cannot replace real duties and a compliant filing.
Outlook
02 / OUTLOOK
Our assessment: higher levels will retain a relative advantage, but how many opportunities that produces still depends on the season’s applicant pool. If new fees or wage floors also take effect, employer budgets could offset some of the procedural advantage.
What happens in each case?
Choose a situation below to see its possible effects. These are alternatives, not steps or predictions of likelihood.
IF THIS HAPPENS A · Current system continues
Higher wage levels retain a relative advantage
Assumption: The rule remains in place and the applicant mix does not change significantly.
Potential effects in this scenario
Level I applicants may place more weight on role growth and later filing opportunities. More entries still do not guarantee selection.
Signals to watch
USCIS instructions for the next registration season and actual selection data.
These scenarios are our analysis, not probability rankings. We revise them as evidence changes.
Which boundaries could change this analysis?
Covered process
Cap-subject H-1B registration and selection.
Weight and probability
One to four entries do not equal a fixed individual selection rate.
Separate wage rule
This selection mechanism does not itself raise the statutory wage an employer must pay.
Progress
03 / Federal rulemaking
DHS completed the NPRM, public-comment, and final-rule stages. The rule took effect on February 27, 2026 and applies wage-level-weighted selection beginning with the FY 2027 H-1B registration season.
Last completed · Effective
The rule reaches its effective date and begins to apply, subject to any court stay or injunction.
Key dates
04 / TIMELINE
DHS published the wage-level-weighted selection NPRM.
DHS published the final rule with the proposed four wage-level weights unchanged.
The rule took effect and applied to the FY 2027 H-1B registration season.